Chris Mason: The Budget is imminent as tricky things pile up for Burnham

In recent times, many politicians have treated Brexit cautiously, much like someone avoiding an electric fence—keeping their distance and only approaching carefully when absolutely necessary. In contrast, Burnham has openly embraced the topic, repeatedly inviting open conversations about Brexit. He believes the existing agreement between the UK and the European Union falls short of what is needed.

Over the weekend, Burnham pushed this stance further by calling for an “honest discussion” regarding freedom of movement. Within the EU’s single market, member countries agree to freedom of movement, allowing citizens to live and work across the member states. Considering the prominence of immigration in the 2016 EU referendum, reopening debate on this issue is significant and sensitive. On Monday morning, the prime minister appeared to clarify that any return to freedom of movement in the UK would require approval by referendum. However, later in the day, his office refrained from reaffirming that position, instead highlighting Burnham’s desire for a broad-reaching dialogue, without committing to specific outcomes at this stage.

Among Burnham’s own party, opinions are divided. Some MPs view his public pronouncements as unnecessarily complicated, whereas others appreciate his willingness to share his evolving thoughts publicly as a means to shape the political conversation. The Labour Party generally favors a closer relationship with the EU than the existing status quo, but members differ on how far and how soon that relationship should change.

Meanwhile, last week Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh authorized drilling in the North Sea’s Jackdaw gas field, located about 150 miles east of Aberdeen. Fahnbulleh justified the decision by emphasizing the need to bolster UK energy security amid ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. She noted the gas extracted could soon provide energy to British homes and businesses, while tax revenues generated would feed into an “energy wealth fund” aimed at financing renewable and low-carbon energy initiatives.

The discussion becomes more complicated regarding the Rosebank oil field, situated approximately 80 miles northwest of the Shetland Islands. Many within and beyond the Labour Party find supporting this oil project much more challenging. Proponents fear that Fahnbulleh may not be persuaded to back Rosebank, leading some allies of the chancellor to publicly express support for the development. On the day the Jackdaw project was approved, the chancellor referred to the Energy Wealth Fund, saying: “It means the extra tax revenues that come from North Sea oil and gas can be directed into developing more clean energy projects for the future.” His explicit mention of oil contrasts with Fahnbulleh’s characterization of Rosebank as “a different proposition” from Jackdaw.

The question remains whether the case for Rosebank—framed as a geopolitically pragmatic and environmentally responsible step in the transition toward cleaner energy—can convince those worried about the emissions associated with a new oil field. Some Labour MPs are hopeful but acknowledge it will be difficult to win over skeptics, including members of the government. Should the project proceed, it could prompt serious political consequences, including the possibility of ministerial resignations. The coming weeks will reveal how these debates unfold

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